The steady pace of consumer spending growth explains why the blue bar on the right side of the chart held up. Why did the gray bar drop so sharply? Because inventories rose sharply. The large jump that you see here could have several causes. The first is that some of the rise in imports that […]
The latest GDP report showed that the pace of growth has slowed between the second and the third quarters of the year. Was this good or bad news? The reason why this is being asked is because of the divergence of the bars on the right side of the chart. Why did this happen, and […]
A Special Report from Dr. Dieli When I published this chart in the July 2018 editions of the Prospects and Perspectives and the Overview and Outlook reports I said that I thought that what had taken place so far this year was a compression of the yield curve and not a flattening of the yield […]
This morning’s report is the poster child for every report in which the headline is both void of content and a spin doctor’s dream. As you will see in the next set of charts, the details on this report are actually quite good and very much consistent with what we have been seeing over the […]
Executive Summary This report explores the relationship of the business cycle to the performance of the stock market. The question we want to answer is, can stock market investors use this relationship to their advantage? Specifically, can an investor improve performance by adjusting equity exposure based on cues from the business cycle? We find that […]
Chart 1: Selected Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) published its first estimate of second quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this morning along with revisions to the series that go back to 2013. The headline number of a 1.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate of growth, was well below the consensus estimates […]
For those of you who sat through all three parts of our Special Report on manufacturing employment, a lot of what you will be seeing here will look familiar. But, for those who are just joining the proceedings, I need to give you a little bit of background on what these reports are all about. […]
NoSpinFORECAST is a management resource tool designed to help you make better business and investment decisions, forecasting 9-12 months ahead in the business cycle.
Through our subscription service, NoSpinFORECAST provides comprehensive charts of statistical data and in-depth analysis of current U.S. economic statistics in easily understandable monthly reports that allow readers to make better business and financial decisions. Based on facts, not conjecture – thus “no spin” – these reports are based on hard numbers, statistical information provided by the U.S. Government and other reliable resources.