Total civilian employment has been setting records for new highs over the course of this expansion. The number you see here is the latest. The question is how many more will be posted before we see the end of the expansion? Stay tuned. Subscribe now!

Are we reaching a limit in employment growth? The most recent peak on this chart is 80.13 in April of 2000. That was during the 120 month expansion that lasted from March of 1991 to March of 2001. Subscribe now!

This series continues to run at a high level, as well it should given the progress we have made in both raising the level of employment and decreasing the level of unemployment. The October move was down slightly from what is currently the highest reading of the expansion. Subscribe now!

The question now is what does this chart really mean in terms of the future of economic activity and monetary policy. We have a low unemployment rate at the same time as we have a low labor force participation rate and slowly rising wages. This is not the configuration of those three series we have […]

While this number showed a bit more improvement in October, its level and trend still put it higher than where it was at the start of the recession. Subscribe now!

Both the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration were glad to see this number. The Fed because it allows them to continue with their current policy stance. The administration because it confirms their fiscal policy initiatives are having the desired effect. Subscribe now!

The size and the gain of employment were perfectly consistent with what we should expect at this part of the cycle. Think of this as Alabama covering a 30 point spread. For those of you not of a football persuasion, that last comment referred to the number one ranked college football team beating an opponent […]

Much was made of this number going through 3%. We will want to see more than one such reading before getting on the bandwagon of higher wage growth. Especially when you compare the current reading to those in the later stages of the last three expansions. Subscribe now!

According to the GDP report, conditions are improving in the public sector. According to the employment report, there has been little forward progress. We will need more evidence to see which set of statistics is closer to reality. Subscribe now!

Strong employment gains will be needed to keep this number at, or near, its current level. As the chart indicates, that has turned out to be very hard to do late in the Expansion phase of the business cycle. Subscribe now!