It has been said that if you can’t see the level and trend of the unemployment rate, the level and trend of this number are the next best thing to use to assess the strength, or weakness, of the labor market. The flattening of the declining trend of this series suggests that we might be […]

The rise in the unemployment rate in January appears to have been largely the result of the government shut down. But, the March drop in the rate was not the result of stronger labor market conditions. Rather, a decline in the labor force offset a decline in employment. That type of event happens with some […]

The jump we saw in January might have been a side effect of the government shut down, as supply chains were affected. But the recent absence of further improvement in the trend of this series is a concern. Slack work conditions are those where employees work fewer hours because their firms don’t have enough activity […]

The rise in part-time employment in the last recession was the most transformational event in the labor market since the entry of large numbers of women into the workforce. The high level of part-time employment is also largely responsible for the lethargic growth of wages and income. Any rebound in this series should be viewed […]

It is extremely important that we continue to see this series continue to move higher. Not only because downturn here are associated with recessions, but because full-time work is better compensated, which helps to support and promote rising consumer spending. Without a healthy consumer sector, it is difficult to attain and sustain high rates of […]

The shape and slope of this line strongly suggest that further expansion is possible. Business cycle peaks occur when this number turns downward. For that to happen, we will need to see negative headline numbers in jobs report. Subscribe now!

After showing some progress over the course of 2018, wage growth appears to have stagnated early in 2019. While the unemployment rate suggests a tight labor market, the pace of compensation gains suggest little, if any, effort by employers to attract and retain employees through higher wages. Subscribe now!

Earnings growth continues lag well behind the pace of gains posted at similar stages of the last two expansions. Worse, the rise in earnings appears to be mostly the result of people working more hours rather than getting paid more per hour of work. Subscribe now!

While the pace of month-to-month gains in hiring has become more volatile of late, this indicator of our position in the business cycle still suggests we are some distance away from the next business cycle peak. Subscribe now!

Manufacturing employment growth, which had been slowing since last October, turned negative in March. Whether this is a temporary phenomenon such as the lulls we have seen in this sector several times earlier in this expansion or the beginning of something more ominous remains to be seen. Still at issue is what effects the changes […]