The jump we saw in January might have been a side effect of the government shut down, as supply chains were affected. But the recent absence of further improvement in the trend of this series is a concern. Slack work conditions are those where employees work fewer hours because their firms don’t have enough activity […]
The rise in part-time employment in the last recession was the most transformational event in the labor market since the entry of large numbers of women into the workforce. The high level of part-time employment is also largely responsible for the lethargic growth of wages and income. Any rebound in this series should be viewed […]
It is extremely important that we continue to see this series continue to move higher. Not only because downturn here are associated with recessions, but because full-time work is better compensated, which helps to support and promote rising consumer spending. Without a healthy consumer sector, it is difficult to attain and sustain high rates of […]
The shape and slope of this line strongly suggest that further expansion is possible. Business cycle peaks occur when this number turns downward. For that to happen, we will need to see negative headline numbers in jobs report. Subscribe now!
After showing some progress over the course of 2018, wage growth appears to have stagnated early in 2019. While the unemployment rate suggests a tight labor market, the pace of compensation gains suggest little, if any, effort by employers to attract and retain employees through higher wages. Subscribe now!
Earnings growth continues lag well behind the pace of gains posted at similar stages of the last two expansions. Worse, the rise in earnings appears to be mostly the result of people working more hours rather than getting paid more per hour of work. Subscribe now!
While the pace of month-to-month gains in hiring has become more volatile of late, this indicator of our position in the business cycle still suggests we are some distance away from the next business cycle peak. Subscribe now!
Manufacturing employment growth, which had been slowing since last October, turned negative in March. Whether this is a temporary phenomenon such as the lulls we have seen in this sector several times earlier in this expansion or the beginning of something more ominous remains to be seen. Still at issue is what effects the changes […]
Total employment gains in the first quarter of 2019 were significantly less than those of the first quarter of 2018. And the task of matching last year’s gains only becomes more difficult as we move into the second quarter. Subscribe now!
While the latest gain in total payroll suggests a rebound from the February lull, the details of the report indicate that employment gains are becoming unevenly distributed across the economy. Such a configuration is common as we transition into the Boom phase of the expansion. Subscribe now!
NoSpinFORECAST is a management resource tool designed to help you make better business and investment decisions, forecasting 9-12 months ahead in the business cycle.
Through our subscription service, NoSpinFORECAST provides comprehensive charts of statistical data and in-depth analysis of current U.S. economic statistics in easily understandable monthly reports that allow readers to make better business and financial decisions. Based on facts, not conjecture – thus “no spin” – these reports are based on hard numbers, statistical information provided by the U.S. Government and other reliable resources.