“If you don’t know where you are going, you might wind up someplace else.”  — Yogi Berra

The version of the business cycle you just saw is the theoretical representation of the event.

In reality, in the United States, the business cycle actually looks like this:

(image official recession periods)

The National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] determined where the bands you see on the chart were placed. How can we figure out where the next band will be?