The February job report is a perfect example of why the National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] waits at least six months before using the employment data to date a business cycle event. Total Nonfarm Payrolls is one of the four coincident indicators that the NBER uses to make its determination of whether or not there has been a business cycle peak or trough. And the reason why they wait is because this series is volatile and subject to revisions. So, for that reason alone, the numbers you see here are not the numbers that will ultimately be used to determine whether a recession has started in February of 2019.


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