07
Aug
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As you can see here, the pattern of month-to-month gains in total payrolls has involved several good months and a pause for quite some time. And as you can also see here, the pattern of revisions, which is an integral part of understanding how this series works, has been on a trend of upward revisions. This is what we usually see in this phase of the cycle. We will see the reverse when we get into a period of sustained drops in employment. It is the nature of the beast. And it is the reason why we open this report with the same two exhibits every month. This is where you begin to evaluate the strength and weakness of the report. The headline is never enough. Any analysis you see based on the headline alone is going to miss the mark most of the time.

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