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August 4, 2019 by Old Prof

The economic calendar is one of the smallest of the year. With last week’s market decline and increased volatility, pundits who are not on a summer vacation can do some navel-gazing and reconsider their conclusions. Or not. Most will be highlighting evidence that makes them seem smart, of course. What they should be asking is:

Did any of the new information change your mind?

Employment growth remains solid but has slowed. Fiscal stimulus from the tax cut did not provide a supply side effect. (Tim Duy).

Each month the best employment situation analysis I see comes from Dr. Robert F. Dieli’s No Spin Forecast. This week he has made the entire report available for download as a sample for non-subscribers. I urge you to take advantage of this valuable offer. Each month he looks at both the payroll and household surveys, placing them in context and linking to the state of the business cycle. He carefully refrains from any political commentary in this fact- and-chart packed analysis. This allows him to do plenty of myth busting on topics like part-time employment.

He also skillfully extracts key indicators from the mass of data. Unlike analysts on a mission, Bob is consistent in these choices. When the indicators change, so do his conclusions. Here is an example we will watch with him.

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