St. Offset
Legend has it that Saint Offset became an economist only because he lacked the charisma to become an actuary.
A capricious and vengeful saint, he grants each forecaster one and only one perfectly accurate prediction. This moment of brilliance gives them the dangerous confidence to keep forecasting. Every prediction thereafter? Off by varying degrees for reasons no one can fully explain.
His followers have tried everything to win his favor from burnt offerings to generous donations. Human sacrifices were even rumored, though quickly discontinued after failing to improve forecast accuracy.
Forecasting remains humbling. Saint Offset remains unimpressed.
Among his most famous teachings are:
- Thou shalt not forecast the forecast.
- Nothing grows to the sky.
- The trend is your friend until it bends,
- I said “maybe” and that’s final.
- Two “wrongs” can make a “right” but it is not always the same two “wrongs”.
- Do not abuse the data.
- Do not ask your barber to clean your teeth or your dentist to cut your hair.
- Until you can tell the difference between a forecast and a sales pitch, assume that what you are hearing is a sales pitch
- Any forecast you can access at no cost is worth what you paid for it.
- Nothing is impossible for the person who doesn’t have to do it.