In an earlier post we showed you an indicator from the Establishment Survey with an impeccable record of indicating where we should look for business cycle turning points. Here’s one from the Household Survey that meets the same standard. Continue Reading…
How to Read the Employment Report (Part 2)
The monthly employment report is actually two employment reports. One covers payroll employment, the other household employment. The Unemployment Rate comes out of the household survey. Interpreting changes in that number requires careful examination.
A Useful (and highly reliable) Business Cycle Turning Point Indicator
There is a wealth of information in the monthly jobs report. One of the most useful pieces is the year-over-year percent change in Nonfarm Payroll employment. This statistic can tell us a lot about where we are in the business cycle. Continue Reading…
How to read the Employment Report (Part 1)
One of the most important pieces of economic information to appear each month is the level of Nonfarm Payroll employment. It is also one of the most misunderstood and misinterpreted statistics out there. Continue Reading…